Climate change can also act as a threat reducer by temporarily causing lower conflict intensity.īoth scholars and policymakers have expressed concerns about the security implications of climate change, with disasters such as storms, floods, or droughts playing a key role in these debates. Mechanism connecting climate-related disasters to armed conflict dynamics via short-term shifts in power relations between the conflict parties. Findings provide empirical support for a proposed power differential But if at least one conflict party is weakened by a disaster and the other lacks the capability to exploit this change, armed conflict intensity declines. Armed conflicts tend to escalate when the disaster induces shifts in relative power, whereby one conflict party (usually the rebels) subsequently scales up its military efforts. Furthermore, only countries highly vulnerable to disasters experienced changes in conflict dynamics. After climate-related disasters, 29 percent of these armed conflicts escalated, 33 percent de-escalated, and 38 percent did not change. Quantitative and qualitative data are presented for twenty-one cases across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) investigates how major climate-related disasters shape the dynamics of ongoing armed conflicts. Disasters play a key role in debates about climate change, environmental stress, and security.
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